Download A Shrinking Society: Post-Demographic Transition in Japan by Toshihiko Hara PDF

By Toshihiko Hara

This is often the booklet to target a brand new phenomenon rising within the twenty-first century: the quickly getting older and lowering inhabitants of a well-developed state, particularly, Japan. The which means of this phenomenon has been effectively clarified because the attainable old final result of the demographic transition from excessive start and loss of life charges to low ones. Japan has entered the post-demographic transitional part and may be the fastest-shrinking society on the earth, major different Asian international locations which are experiencing a similar drastic alterations. the writer used the historic data, compiled via the Statistic Bureau, Ministry of inner Affairs and Communications in 2006 and inhabitants projections for published in 2012 by way of the nationwide Institute of inhabitants and Social protection examine, to teach the previous and destiny improvement of the dependency ratio from 1891 to 2060. Then, using the inhabitants lifestyles desk and internet copy fee, the consequences of accelerating existence expectancy and declining fertility at the dependency ratio have been saw individually. ultimately, the old relationships between women’s survival charges at reproductive age, the theoretical fertility fee to keep up the substitute point and the recorded overall fertility price (TFR) have been analyzed. old statement confirmed TFR adapting to the theoretical point of fertility with a definite time lag and resembling women’s survival premiums at reproductive age. Women’s expanding lifespan and survival charges can have inspired choice making to lessen the danger of childbearing. no matter if the theoretical fertility expense meets the substitute point, women’s perspectives of minimizing the danger may perhaps stay unchanged simply because for girls the cost–benefit imbalance in childbearing continues to be too excessive in Japan. in accordance with the findings, the writer discusses the sustainability of jap society when it comes to nationwide funds, social safety reform, family members regulations, immigration guidelines and group polices.

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1) stayed at a low level. Hashimoto Cabinet enacted the Fiscal Structure Reform Law (1997) to end the dependency on special deficit-financing bonds. However, the effort was suspended by the following Obuchi Cabinet. 0 Year Fig. 2 Historical relationship between aggravation of the financial condition and dependency ratios. (MOF 2013a, b, 2014; NIPSSR 2013b) pp.  This high level of dependency ratio is partly due to the increasing amount of national debt service in total expenditure. The national debt service is the budget for the redemption of the public debt (including interest).

This employment pattern has widened the income gap and stratifies Japanese society. It is because the base of national income is getting narrower. In this changing economy, the growing imbalance between social security contributions and payment would make the entire system unsustainable. Increasing elder care costs would hinder the further development of the social security systems for childbearing/care under the never-ending financial crisis. Consequently, the burden of childbearing/care is concentrated on the individuals who want to have children and take the risk of childbearing in life course.

26 million) from 2010 levels (NIPSSR 2012a). The reduction of population itself could lead to a decrease in demands and productions, if the income per capita and the labor productivity are assumed to be constant. In fact, even this assumption is too optimistic when recognizing the rapid © Author(s) 2015 T. 9 % by 2060 (NIPSSR 2012a). 96 by 2060 (NIPSSR 2012a), almost a double. It means the working age population, the one who are the foundation of innovation,1 to keep or raise the income per capita and responds for labor productivity, is diminishing.

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